University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: North Carolina State
February 24, 2016 | Men's Basketball
North Carolina State (GoPack.com)
Location: Raleigh, N.C.
Rankings: NCSU - No. 65 KenPom, No. 101 RPI, NR AP; UNC - No. 6 KenPom, No. 8 RPI, No. 7 AP
Records: NCSU - 14-13, 4-10 ACC; UNC - 22-5, 11-3
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 152-77 (UNC 67, NCSU 55, Jan. 16, 2016, Smith Center)
Five and a half weeks ago, North Carolina State came to Chapel Hill and dropped its fifth straight contest to fall to 10-8 and 0-5 in the ACC. Nine games later, the Wolfpack has seen its NCAA tournament chances erode practically to the point of needing to win it all in Washington next month to make the Big Dance.
It's not that State isn't capable of winning most nights - Wednesday in Raleigh included. The rout of RPI No. 10 Miami, which responded to a 16-point loss to the Pack with a five-game winning streak, proved that Mark Gottfried's club can play with anyone. It's more of a numbers game, and the numbers aren't pretty. No. 101 in the RPI, 13th in the ACC at 4-10 and currently in line for a Tuesday play-in game at the ACC Tournament.
Despite an overall record that has hovered around .500 for most of February, the Cat Barber train has rolled on and the junior dynamo is a legit contender for ACC Player of the Year honors. Barber leads the league in scoring at 23.1 points per game, ranks fourth in assists and third in free throw percentage and plays almost every minute of every game. In State's last seven contests, Barber has been on the floor for 277 of 280 possible minutes. He's even improved to a near-40 percent shooter from 3 while still getting to the line more than any other ACC player.
The win over Clemson last Saturday was noteworthy because the Wolfpack beat a solid opponent despite a rare off day from Barber. Cat was 1-12 from the field and had just eight points, but State won 77-75 thanks in large part to the rest of the team shooting 9 of 17 from 3. Abdul-Malik Abu was a force inside, making 7 of 12 field goals and grabbing 16 boards for his 11th double-double of the year.
Thanks to Barber, Abu (second in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage) and standout freshman Maverick Rowan, North Carolina State has quietly emerged as one of the better offensive teams in college basketball. The Pack ranks 34th nationally in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and they are currently scoring 1.10 points per possession in league games, behind only Notre Dame, Duke, UNC and Virginia.
Defensively, things are as bad as they've been in Gottfried's five seasons in Raleigh. Through 14 league games, the Pack ranks dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, allowing a whopping 1.14 PPP. State's biggest weakness is its inability to force turnovers (334th nationally in defensive TO%) and its struggles to defend the 3. In league play, only BC, Notre Dame and Pitt allow a higher percentage from deep, and no one forces turnovers less often.
The good news for State is that with four games to play, the Wolfpack still has three shots at Tier A wins - Wednesday vs. Carolina, Saturday at Syracuse and the season finale at Notre Dame. The bad news is that they are 2-7 in those games to date.
