University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: Louisville
February 22, 2017 | Men's Basketball
Louisville (GoCards.com)
Location: Louisville, Ky.
Rankings: UofL - No. 5 KenPom, No. 7 AP; UNC - No. 6 KenPom, No. 8 AP
Records: UofL - 22-5, 10-4 ACC; UNC - 23-5, 11-3 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 11-5 (UofL 71, UNC 65, Feb. 1, 2016, KFC Yum! Center)
Wednesday's clash between UNC and Louisville not only pits the top two teams in the ACC standings against one another, but it also features the two teams tied for first in efficiency margin in the league. Both teams are outscoring their opponents by 0.14 points per possession, comfortably ahead of No. 3 Florida State.
While it won't surprise you to hear that Louisville has done it with more of a defensive lean than the Tar Heels, you may not realize just how good the Cardinals have been on offense in 2017. Last season UofL ranked second nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, but an offense that ranked 12th in the ACC kept Rick Pitino's group from taking full advantage of that strength.
This year, due in large part to the emergence of Donovan Mitchell as one of the league's best players, the Cards (1.14) trail only Carolina (1.17) and Duke (1.16) offensively in PPP. Mitchell's production has exploded in his sophomore season, and it's only gotten better against ACC competition. After averaging just 7.4 points per game as a freshman, Mitchell is scoring 15.6 ppg overall and 18.1 ppg in conference games. While some of that increase can be attributed to his much larger role in the offense, Mitchell has turned himself into a standout three-point shooter. He's making 41 percent of his 3s in ACC play this season, a huge jump from his 25 percent overall mark last year.
Mitchell has help as well from backcourt mate Quentin Snider. Snider, who recently missed six games due to a hip injury, ranks fifth in the ACC at nearly 48 percent from deep. Interestingly, as Luke Winn pointed out in his power rankings this week, UofL actually had some of its most impressive statistical wins of the year while Snider was out. The Cards were 4-2 without the junior point guard with a 55-point road win at Pitt and a 32-point home win over Clemson among the highlights. Of course Snider did play a big part in Louisville's 94-90 win over Virginia Tech, one of the craziest offensive games in all of college basketball this season.
Up front, the Cardinals feature the formidable trio of senior Mangok Mathiang, junior Jaylen Johnson and sophomore Deng Adel. Throw in 7-footer Anas Mahmoud, the ACC's top shot blocker, and you've got one of the few teams in the league that can attempt to match Carolina on the boards. Johnson and Mathiang are especially strong on the offensive glass, where the Cards trail only UNC in rebounding their own misses. Louisville also takes great care of the ball, turning it over just 15 percent of the time against the ACC, tops in the league.
While the Cards are fairly deep and should have freshman V.J. King back Wednesday, graduate transfer Tony Hicks is still out with a hand injury he suffered at Pitt. That means Mitchell and Snider (and Adel for that matter) figure to be on the court most of the game, with freshman Ryan McMahon and senior David Levitch available to give the backcourt some limited rest.
Wednesday represents Louisville's toughest remaining game, so a win in Chapel Hill would put the Cardinals on the fast track for the No. 1 seed in Brooklyn. A loss, however, could put the double bye in jeopardy as Louisville loses a tiebreaker with Florida State and can do no better than split with Notre Dame.
