Lucas: States Of Matter

By Adam Lucas

Good news: I am here to tell you that Wednesday night's 83-70 loss to Marquette really doesn't matter.

Not in the long term, it doesn't. Carolina still sits 8-5 in the Atlantic Coast Conference, has three games remaining, and if the Tar Heels get to 10-6 in the league, it's very difficult to imagine a world in which they are left out of the NCAA Tournament.

The outcome against Marquette has very little to do with the Tar Heels' postseason fortunes. Sure, it's a Quadrant 3 loss based on the NCAA's NET ranking, but if Carolina makes it to that 10-6 mark, they'll have added another couple very nice victories. Remember, they're not competing against the NCAA Tournament cut line from past (read: more normal) seasons. They're competing against this year's NCAA Tournament cut line, when very few applicants have unblemished credentials.

The Tar Heels still have two of three games remaining at the Smith Center, where they've been substantially better this season, and there's a chance they might get to play in front of at least a few fans in those two games.

So hopefully you're feeling a little better about the situation, because this is where I tell you that Wednesday night's 83-70 loss to Marquette really does matter.

Not because of the way it impacts this season. Carolina still has the opportunities to get the key wins that it needs. But because of what it says about this year's team.

As Roy Williams said after the game, "We've laid an egg a couple of times this year." Wednesday was an egg. In fact, Wednesday was an egg that felt an awful lot like the egg at NC State on Dec. 22. That game was over two months ago and we wanted to believe this Tar Heel team had grown past that point.

That was supposed to be a fluky early season ACC road game with a young team three days before Christmas that simply didn't understand the effort and game-long intensity required to defeat a major conference opponent. It was a long time ago and it was ancient history and…

It happened again.

Carolina was never really in the game against Marquette. The Tar Heels had just waxed Louisville by 45 points and appeared to believe they started Wednesday's game with that same 45-point lead. They soon found out that it didn't carry over.

"Marquette beat our rear ends," Williams said. "They outplayed us, outcoached us, wanted it more, everything. I was very concerned before the game. Yesterday at practice our whole attitude, we can't stand a little prosperity."

There are three games left in the regular season. The Tar Heels have yet to win four games in a row. Granted, this year's schedule has been wacky, and given a normal outlay of games, it's very possible the results might be different. But do you know how many Williams-coached teams in Chapel Hill have failed to win four games in a row?

Zero. It's never happened.

Go back to the Kansas record books, and every single Williams-coached Jayhawk team won at least four games in a row.

Someone stop me before I pull out the Owen High School record books.

Somehow, it seems fitting. In the weirdest, most unpredictable season of Williams' coaching career, the Tar Heels appear to have assembled the most unpredictable, least consistent team of Williams' coaching career. One night they might post the program's fourth-largest ACC win ever, which isn't a nothing stat, considering that the three highest margins of victory in ACC play were recorded by eventual Final Four or national championship teams (1993, 1998 and 2017). And four nights later they might watch their starters be outscored, 70-33, by a 10-12 Marquette team.

What have we proven? It's simple, really. Wednesday night's game really didn't matter. Unless it did.

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