Carmichael Comments: Analyzing The Non-Conference Schedule

It's been a few months since the Carolina women's basketball team saw its 2021-22 season come to a close with the program's first Sweet 16 run since 2015. Carolina fans and national viewers alike witnessed a breakout third season for head coach Courtney Banghart and her young core, posting 25 wins and returning the team to national prominence. Now, with four starters returning from that team and a talented wave of newcomers joining the mix, the 2022-23 season is already one of the most anticipated in program history.

Now fans have even more reason to be excited: the first pieces of the scheduling puzzle are in place with the release of the Tar Heels' non-conference schedule on Wednesday. In studying the 11-game slate, here are three major themes that stand out:

Marquee Games Galore
Quite simply, this is a schedule that makes you go "wow."

Carolina will play five games against fellow Power Five foes, an increase of two over the three played in the 2021-22 campaign. The quintet – TCU, Oregon, either Iowa State or Michigan State, Indiana, and Michigan – is not just a collection of Power Five teams, but an elite lineup. Carolina will play at least three Power Five teams who qualified for last year's NCAA Tournament, and if the second PKI matchup is Iowa State, that number will increase to four. Further breaking that group down, Iowa State and Indiana reached the Sweet 16 in March, while Michigan advanced to the Elite Eight.
It's the largest collection of Power Five teams on a non-conference schedule for the Tar Heels since 2018-19, when Carolina played 14 non-conference games – three more than the 11 set for 2022-23 (the ACC expanded the league schedule to 18 games starting with the 2019-20 season). Not only that, but four of the games will come away from home. In the NCAA's ever-important NET metric, wins away from home are more heavily weighted, a key reason why the Tar Heels were consistently in the top 10 in the metric through last season.

In ESPN's "Way-Too-Early Top 25," Iowa State appears at No. 10, Indiana is No. 12, and Oregon No. 20.

Additionally, the season opener against Jackson State is yet another team that played in March Madness. The Tigers went undefeated in their conference last season and took LSU to the wire before falling by six in March.

If Carolina's run of undefeated regular season non-conference slates runs to three straight years, the Tar Heels will have earned it. Either way, this is a docket set up to build an eye-popping resume when it comes time for NCAA Tournament seeding and hosting assignments, and will expose Carolina to a national audience early and often in the late fall.

Fans Won't Have to Wait Long
A season ago, Carolina played five of its first seven games on the road, meaning that the Tar Heels played their third home game of the year on Dec. 5. That's not the case this season, as Carolina will open with three straight home games from Nov. 9-16. As last season progressed, crowds and energy in Carmichael Arena consistently increased as fans came to love this exciting group of Tar Heels. Now, with three in a row in the friendly confines to tip off this highly-anticipated campaign, the opportunity exists to build fan momentum and generate student excitement prior to exams.

Balance
For the second year in a row, the schedule is reasonably balanced between home and road/neutral games, with five games set for Carmichael Arena, three in true road environments, and three at neutral sites. Plus, the spacing of the games matches up well with a traditional Thursday/Sunday ACC season setup. Carolina will never play more than two games per week, and will start the season with three straight weeks of two games – much like in ACC play. Thanks in part to the setup of the PKI, the Tar Heels will not have any games on consecutive days, and will have no more than six days between games (Dec. 1 at Indiana and Dec. 7 vs. UNCW as the longest gap).

Non-Conference Opponent Capsules:
Nov. 9: Jackson State (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 23-7, 18-0 SWAC (Won SWAC Tournament; lost in NCAA Tournament First Round at LSU, 83-77)
Series Record: First Meeting
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

The Tar Heels' season will begin with a bang, as one of the nation's most successful mid-majors from the 2021-22 season makes a first-ever trip to Carmichael Arena. Jackson State rolled through the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), posting a 21-0 record between the regular season and league tournament en route to a second straight SWAC crown. Only three of those 21 wins came by single digits. Jackson State gave LSU a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, leading by a point after the third quarter before the hosts roared back on their home floor to win 83-77. That game continued a trend for Jackson State's Tigers, who took on five Power Five opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule last year, and while the record sat at 0-5, JSU played Miami within five and Arkansas within four points. Head Coach Tomekia Reed enters her fifth season in Jackson, having guided the Tigers to the SWAC Tournament finals in each season of her tenure in which a tournament was contested. She was named the 2022 SWAC Coach of the Year following her historic undefeated run through the league schedule.

Jackson State will be without the services of SWAC Player of the Year Amyesha Williams-Holliday in 2022-23 – but for good reason, as the 19.3 PPG/11.2 RPG contributor was picked 25^th overall by the Indiana Fever in the WNBA Draft, the first HBCU player to earn a selection since 2002. JSU's other double-digit scorer, G Dayzsha Rogan, was named second team all-SWAC for her 13.9 PPG in her senior season. Among projected returning players, F Miya Crump scored 9.7 PPG while making 27 starts. JSU hit the portal aggressively, bringing in a pair of Power Five transfers in C Angel Jackson (USC) and G Liz Martino (Rutgers).

Nov. 12: TCU (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 6-22, 2-16 Big XII (Lost in Big XII Tournament First Round vs. West Virginia, 68-48)
Series Record: UNC leads 2-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 79-46, in Fort Worth, Texas on Nov. 21, 2021
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 79-46, in Fort Worth, Texas on Nov. 21, 2021

The back end of a home-and-home with the TCU Horned Frogs takes place at Carmichael Arena and represents the Tar Heels' first game of the season against a fellow Power Five team. Last season's meeting was a narrow low-scoring affair through a half – the Tar Heels led 29-22 at the break – before Carolina exploded to outscore the Horned Frogs 50-24 after halftime and win by 33. Deja Kelly scored a then-career-high 25 points in a return to her home state, while Alyssa Ustby posted a 16-point, 16-rebound double-double. TCU's season went into a tailspin from there, with the Horned Frogs winning just two Big XII games, against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech by one point each. Head Coach Raegan Pebley enters her ninth season at TCU still in search of her first NCAA Tournament berth at the school (though with a 22-7 record in 2019-20, the Horned Frogs would have gone had the pandemic not begun). Her three-straight 20-win seasons from 2018-2020 had TCU poised for a rise as a regular contender in the Big XII, but now it appears TCU is hitting the reset button with a new roster for 2022-23. Six newcomers join the program as transfers to replace seven players who transferred out, a class headlined by G Knisha Godfrey, who scored 12.7 PPG in her freshman season at Mississippi State. Godfrey was a top 50 recruit in the class of 2021, holding the distinction of No. 8 PG by ESPNW HoopGurlz. TCU's top returning scorer is G Tara Manumaleuga – the ninth-leading scorer on the Frogs' roster last year at just 2.9 PPG. As we've seen in the era of the transfer portal, teams can quickly improve their fortunes. TCU is hoping that's the case for 2022-23.

Nov. 16: South Carolina State (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 4-25, 4-10 MEAC (Lost in MEAC Tournament Quarterfinals vs. Morgan State, 66-53)
Series Record: UNC leads 5-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 98-28, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 3, 2020
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 98-28, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 3, 2020

One of the more common mid-major opponents in recent Carolina history, South Carolina State will visit Carmichael Arena on Nov. 16. It's the fifth time the Bulldogs have made the trip north from the Palmetto State in the 21^st century and third time in the last six seasons. Timothy Eatman enters his first year as the head coach at South Carolina State, taking over after a seven-year stint as an assistant coach at Rutgers, where he served as the Scarlet Knights' acting head coach in 2019. Eatman's prior coaching stops include time at current ACC schools Boston College and Louisville, and a tenure as head coach at Illinois-Chicago from 1998-2002. He inherits a South Carolina State team that has failed to crack the 10-win mark in three consecutive seasons, but boasts a promising young talent in G Nicole Gwynn, who led the team in scoring last season at 11.2 PPG, making nearly half of her shots from three-point range. The season garnered her recognition on the All-MEAC Third Team and All-Rookie Team.

Nov. 20: at James Madison (Harrisonburg, Va.)
2021-22: 14-15, 10-8 CAA (No postseason)
Series Record: UNC leads 3-1
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 93-47, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 5, 2021
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 93-47, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 5, 2021

Another matchup that serves as the back end of a home-and-home series, Carolina will face James Madison for the second consecutive season off a 93-47 win in Carmichael Arena last year. Deja Kelly paced the Tar Heels with 21 points in the win, while Anya Poole collected 10 rebounds. JMU, one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the region, had appeared in the postseason in 13 straight seasons from 2007-2019 before the pandemic set in. Last year, JMU was ineligible for its conference tournament due to the announcement of the school's conference change from the CAA to the Sun Belt, and the Dukes finished under .500 in a rebuilding season. Head coach Sean O'Regan enters his seventh season since taking over for now-Virginia Tech coach Kenny Brooks, and owns a .704 (131-55) win percentage in his tenure. His 2022-23 squad will be led by G Kiki Jefferson, JMU's top scorer from a season ago at 18.8 PPG – the lone JMU player to average double figures.

Phil Knight Invitational (PKI) – Nov. 24 & 27 (Portland, Ore.)

Oregon
2021-22: 20-12, 11-6 Pac-12 (Lost in Pac-12 Tournament Semifinals vs. Utah, 80-73; Lost in NCAA Tournament First Round vs. Belmont, 73-70 (2OT))
Series Record: Tied 1-1
Last Meeting: Oregon wins, 79-77, in Chapel Hill on Nov. 15, 2015
Coach Banghart Record: Oregon leads 1-0
Last Meeting: Oregon wins over Princeton, 110-90, in Eugene, Ore. on Dec. 1, 2013

The closest team to the tournament site in Portland, the Ducks are trying to return to national prominence after failing to qualify for the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016, victimized by a first round upset against Belmont. Head coach Kelly Graves opens his ninth season in Eugene with a vastly remade roster, but certainly not one devoid of talent – thus why Oregon appears at No. 20 in ESPN way-too-early top 25. Leading scorer Nyara Sabally has headed off to the WNBA's New York Liberty, leaving G Endyia Rogers as the team's leading returning scorer at 14.3 PPG. Rogers was tabbed as an All-Pac-12 selection last season. Another key returner is G Te-Hina Paopao, who scored 13.6 PPG, and like Rogers, shot better than 30% from three on at least 100 attempts. With five role players gone to the transfer portal, the Ducks added several newcomers, including graduate transfer G Taya Hanson from Arizona State, who started 50 straight games for the Sun Devils and averaged 2.1 APG last season. Oregon's freshman class was ranked no. 2 by ESPNW HoopGurlz, headlined by five-star PG Chance Gray (No. 7 national recruit) and five-star F Grace VanSlooten (No. 13 recruit). The Ducks are built to contend in the Pac-12 and nationally yet again.

Iowa State
2021-22: 28-7, 14-4 Big XII (Lost in Big XII Tournament Semifinals vs. Texas, 82-73 (OT); Lost in NCAA Sweet 16 vs. Creighton, 76-68)
Series Record: Tied 1-1
Last Meeting: Iowa State wins, 79-67, in Ames, Iowa on Jan. 23, 2000
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

A potential Elite Eight matchup last spring – both the Tar Heels and Cyclones fell in the Sweet 16 of the Greensboro Regional – Carolina and Iowa State could instead clash in Portland in November. ISU, as mentioned above, is currently ranked No. 10 in the ESPN way-too-early top 25 poll, and for good reason. The Cyclones are coming off a season in which they posted a school-record 28 wins, and G/F Ashley Joens, the two-time reigning Cheryl Miller Award winner for the nation's top small forward, returns for a fifth season. Joens posted an eye-popping stat line of 20.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 1.8 APG. At 2,369 career points, she is already the all-time leading scorer in Iowa State history. But Joens is far from the only piece for 28^th-year Head Coach Bill Fennelly. G Lexi Donarski was named Big XII Defensive Player of the Year, not to mention scoring 14.3 PPG, and G Emily Ryan chipped in 13.1 PPG while also dishing out a whopping 7.1 APG. In the transfer portal, ISU picked up 6'6 C Stephanie Soares, who, pardon the pun, soars above many of her opponents. She's a two-time NAIA National Player of the Year at The Master's College in California, but her value at the Division I level remains to be seen. Iowa State's bread and butter is the three-pointer, as the Cyclones hit 10.2 threes a game last year, second nationally. And, they were efficient: at 38.7%, ISU was also second nationally in three-point percentage.

Michigan State
2021-22: 15-15, 8-9 Big Ten (Lost in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals vs. Ohio State, 74-58)
Series Record: UNC leads 4-1
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 62-53, in Chapel Hill on Mar. 25, 2014 in NCAA Tournament Second Round
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

The Tar Heels and Spartans could square off in the PKI in their first meeting since 2014. MSU is eager to turn the page to 2022-23, with the 15-15 overall record a year ago marking the Spartans' first non-winning season since now-16^th year head coach Suzy Merchant took over the program. MSU qualified for the NCAA Tournament four times in the five prior times the event was held before last year, so they're a mainstay in March and another quality opponent for Carolina. MSU will need to replace Nia Clouden, who averaged 20.0 PPG in starting all 30 games last season before heading off to the WNBA's Connecticut Sun with the 12^th overall pick in this year's draft. However, G/F Matilda Ekh returns for her sophomore campaign after scoring 11.5 PPG and earning Big Ten All-Freshman Team recognition. She connected on 62 made threes last season, helping MSU to the top 25 nationally in three-point percentage at 35.4%. Merchant aggressively hit the transfer portal to try and replace Clouden, bringing in a pair of names familiar to Carolina fans. G Gabby Elliott was an ACC All-Freshman Team selection in 2020-21 at Clemson, averaging 12.2 PPG in her Tigers career. G Stephanie Visscher joins the team as a graduate transfer from Stephen F. Austin, where she averaged 14.2 PPG last season, including nine against the Tar Heels in March's NCAA Tournament showdown in Tucson, Ariz.

Dec. 1: at Indiana (Bloomington, Ind.)
2021-22: 24-9, 11-5 Big Ten (Lost in Big Ten Tournament Championship Game vs. Iowa,74-67; Lost in NCAA Sweet 16 vs. UConn, 75-58)
Series Record: UNC leads 2-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 80-75, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 4, 1988
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

The Tar Heels' annual ACC-Big Ten Challenge matchup sends Carolina to Assembly Hall in Bloomington for their first matchup with Indiana since 1988. It's a clash of two teams who qualified for last year's Sweet 16 and ultimately fell to teams who would play in the National Championship game – Carolina to South Carolina, and Indiana to UConn. The Hoosiers earned their highest-ever NCAA Tournament seed (No. 3), hosting the first two rounds inside their home venue. Teri Moren opens her ninth season as Indiana's head coach having won 20+ games in seven consecutive campaigns – taking the Hoosiers to last year's Sweet 16 and the 2021 Elite Eight. Now, Indiana has its sights set on a third-straight deep NCAA Tournament run and sits at No. 12 in the ESPN way-too-early top 25 thanks to the return of the top two scorers from last year. G Grace Berger scored 16.2 PPG to lead the team, while F Mackenzie Holmes added 15.2 PPG, and both are back for this year. Additionally, Indiana adds W Sydney Parrish from Oregon and G Sara Scalia from Minnesota via the transfer portal.

Dec. 7: UNCW (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 3-26, 0-18 CAA (Lost in CAA Tournament First Round vs. Hofstra, 46-45)
Series Record: UNC leads 4-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 85-45, in Myrtle Beach, S.C. on Dec. 20, 2019
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 85-45, in Myrtle Beach, S.C. on Dec. 20, 2019

UNCW and Carolina will square off for just the fifth time ever, but fourth in the past six seasons. The Seahawks are a program in transition, under the direction of Interim Head Coach Tina Martin following a five-year run at the helm by Karen Barefoot. Martin enjoyed years of success at Delaware, coaching WNBA star Elena Delle Donne to a pair of NCAA Tournaments including the 2013 Sweet 16. That season, Martin and the Blue Hens beat Carolina in the NCAA Second Round on Delaware's home floor in Newark, Del. Martin takes over a UNCW program that won a pair of games over Division I opponents last season, but came within a point of a CAA Tournament win against Hofstra in the event's first round. G Carrie Gross is UNCW's leading returning scorer, coming off a season in which she averaged 9.4 PPG. A familiar name for Carolina fans is G Kendal Moore, who joins the Seahawks as a graduate transfer from NC State.

Dec. 11: Wofford (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 17-14, 11-3 SoCon (Lost in SoCon Tournament Semifinals vs. Furman, 64-59; Lost in WNIT First Round at Middle Tennessee, 86-56)
Series Record: UNC leads 6-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 96-42, in Chapel Hill on Nov. 25, 2008
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

Carolina and Wofford will square off for the first time since 2008. The Terriers made their first-ever postseason appearance at the Division I level last season, a WNIT trip following a 17-win season and program-best 11-3 SoCon mark. It's been a steady increase for Wofford under seventh-year head coach Jimmy Garrity, who has now led the Terriers to four straight seasons with an overall winning record and league record of .500 or better. The Terriers led the SoCon in scoring offense last season (66.2 PPG), but will return just one of their top five scorers – F Lilly Hatton, who contributed 9.7 PPG as the second-leading scorer on the Terrier roster. In an attempt to re-load, Garrity has signed G Rachael Rose from the transfer portal. Rose spent her freshman season at USC Upstate (also located in Spartanburg, S.C.), and scored 13.1 PPG with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5:1.

Dec. 16: USC Upstate (Chapel Hill)
2021-22: 22-8, 14-4 Big South (Lost in Big South Tournament Quarterfinals vs. UNC Asheville, 62-57)
Series Record: UNC leads 2-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 80-40, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 16, 2015
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

The final non-conference home game pits the Tar Heels and the Spartans of USC Upstate for the first time in exactly seven years and third time ever. The Spartans, who joined Division I in 2007, matched their D1-era record with 22 wins a year ago, but saw their quest for a first NCAA Tournament appearance fall short with an upset loss in the Big South Tournament. Still, the performance was enough for Head Coach Becky Burke to earn the head job at Buffalo, where she replaces Felisha Legette-Jack, who is now in the ACC at Syracuse. Enter Jason Williams, who has spent the past nine seasons as the head coach at Belmont Abbey College in suburban Charlotte. Williams took his final Crusaders team to the Division II Elite Eight in 2022 in his third NCAA Tournament appearance at Belmont Abbey. As is customary in coaching changes in college basketball these days, the Spartans lost eight players off last year's roster to the transfer portal. In fact, only one player who saw the floor for USC Upstate last season returns. However, six newcomers from other Division I schools arrive in Spartanburg to play for Williams' first USC Upstate team. The highlight of the group is G Trinity Johnson, a former all-Big South pick at Presbyterian in 2020-21.

Dec. 21: vs. Michigan (Jumpman Invitational, Charlotte, N.C.)
2021-22: 25-7, 13-4 Big Ten (Lost in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals vs. Nebraska, 76-73; Lost in NCAA Elite Eight vs. Louisville, 62-50)
Series Record: UNC leads 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 88-75, in Chapel Hill on Dec. 4, 1987
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads 2-0
Last Meeting: Princeton wins, 74-57, in Princeton, N.J. on Dec. 6, 2015

It's hard to believe given the similarities between the two schools, but Carolina and Michigan have met just once in women's basketball prior to the inaugural playing of the Jumpman Invitational at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte just before Christmas. It's the rare opponent that Courtney Banghart has competed against more times than the Tar Heel program (Banghart's Princeton Tigers beat Michigan twice in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons). Kim Barnes Arico enters year no. 11 in Ann Arbor, and has elevated the Wolverines to historic heights in the past five seasons. Michigan had won just three NCAA Tournament games in program history prior to 2018, but advanced to the second round in both 2018 and 2019. Following the canceled 2020 postseason, the Wolverines reached their first Sweet 16 in 2021, and followed it up with the program's first Elite Eight in 2022. Ultimately, Michigan came up short against Louisville in the quest to advance to a first Final Four. That game did mark the end of an era for the Wolverines, though, as it marked the final game for all-time leading scorer Naz Hillmon, who became Michigan's highest WNBA Draft pick at 15^th overall by the Atlanta Dream. Hillmon's 21.0 PPG absence does leave a gaping hole in Michigan's offense, but the Wolverines return G Leigha Brown, a 14.0 PPG scorer, for a fifth year. F Emily Kiser, who scored 9.3 PPG and pulled in 8.1 RPG, started every game last year and returns in 2022-23 after testing the waters of the transfer portal. Kiser's efforts on the glass helped Michigan to a +10.3 rebound margin, tops in the Big Ten and sixth nationally. Among freshmen, F Alyssa Crockett is ranked No. 48 in the ESPNW HoopGurlz rankings, and G Kate Clarke is No. 99.

That's all for now! Go Heels!

-Matt