University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
March 18, 2008 | Men's Basketball
March 18, 2008
By Adam Lucas
Regular readers of this column will remember the points and minutes theorem, a formerly (pre- three-point line) foolproof way to determine whether a lead was safe. Well, now there's a fancy scientific way to determine whether a game is out of reach. It comes with a pedigree, because it's been formulated by baseball wizard Bill James. The only drawback is that it's, well, kind of complicated. I like the idea of knowing for sure when the Tar Heels have locked up a victory, but I don't like the idea of missing a smooth move by Wayne Ellington because I'm trying to figure out how to square 9.5.
The James formula is knotty, but it's still fun to play with the "Is the lead safe?" tool on the above link. I put in some of Carolina's most memorable comebacks (for an easy starting point, click here), and found that James must be well-acquainted with Tar Heel hoops, because he doesn't consider very many leads to be safe.
There's one flaw in the formula, however. Enter an 8-point deficit with 17 seconds remaining and--even with the three-point line, which the 1974 Tar Heels didn't have--the response is, "The lead is 100% safe."
See, computers don't know everything.
A group of friends and I--who are hard-core Carolina fans--believe that Carolina would have been better off losing Saturday against Virginia Tech, and we actually were hoping for it. The main reason is that by winning the ACC tournament, Carolina would enter the NCAA tournament on an 11 game winning streak, and to win the national championship, we'd have to have a 17 game winning streak. We (passionate fans) value the national championship more than an ACC championship and would rather see Carolina lose so Roy can make them value defense and learn to not go into cruise control, rest Lawson etc. So could you tell us how Carolina has fared in the NCAAs after winning the ACC tournament vs. losing early (as it happened in 2005, if I remember correctly) with respect to winning streak lengths?
Anna Zhao
Chapel Hill
By the time Carolina tips off at 7:10 p.m. on Friday, you'll be able to rehearse from memory the fact that a Roy Williams-coached team has never been to the Final Four in the same season that they won the conference tournament title.
The NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, the Tar Heels have won seven league titles. The NCAA results in those seasons:
1989: lost in Sweet 16
1991: lost in Final Four
1994: lost in second round
1997: lost in Final Four
1998: lost in Final Four
2007: lost in regional final
2008: TBA
Conversely, the Tar Heels have lost on Saturday or earlier nine times:
1986: lost in Sweet 16
1990: lost in Sweet 16
1996: lost in second round
2000: lost in Final Four
2002: ugh
2003: see above
2004: lost in second round
2005: national champions
2006: lost in second round
I don't know about you, Anna, but other than the 2005 national title, I'd rather have the results produced by the ACC Tournament-winning teams, which include three Final Fours and a regional final in just six tries (and a soon-to-be seventh try). If you need even more reassurance, check out this week's Tuesday Talking Points for a very positive stat concerning UNC teams that have won the regular season title outright and then gone on to win the ACC Tournament.
I was wondering if you could give me some insight to the daily routine of a player, more specifically, a Carolina player during ACC tournament weekend. Do they have practice? And if so, is it mostly drills and going through the motions, or is it like any other practice? Or do they tend to focus on defending and running offense against the team they are scheduled to play? But then I also wonder what the players do in those hours before and after their game and after. Do they go out to eat or are they confined to a hotel room/lobby? Do they stay and hang around the coliseum to watch the other teams play. Are they allowed to sit in the stands and watch? Or is everything they do mandated by the coaching staff all weekend such as meal time, where to be, lights out etc. I know they have curfew, but how does a player wearing the heavenly blue pass the time this weekend?
Benjamin Carter
Wilmington, NC
It's a very appropriate time for this question, because the postseason brings an entirely new routine for Tar Heel players. During the regular season, they're busy with classes and other campus activities in addition to their basketball responsibilities. But in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, the routine changes. Regular season road trips are almost always just one night--the players attend class in Chapel Hill the day before the game, practice at the Smith Center that afternoon, and then leave for the game site that evening. They play the game the next afternoon or evening and then return to campus immediately to make sure they're in class the next day.
That routine changes in the postseason, and especially in the NCAA Tournament. Carolina chose not to participate in last week's open ACC Tournament practices, but the Tar Heels had already played a game at Bobcats Arena during the regular season. In the NCAA Tournament, there's no option. The NCAA, which of course is fully committed to the welfare of student-athletes, requires teams to be at the game site the day before the game to participate in the media session and a mandatory open practice. That's not a big deal when you're traveling from Chapel Hill to Raleigh, but when it's cross-country travel, it can sometimes mean two extra missed days of class.
Other than those NCAA time commitments, the NCAA Tournament is filled with a whole lot of sitting around the hotel. While coaches are stressing out about scouting or matchups, players are usually watching TV or movies, sleeping, or eating. Speaking of eating, many team functions revolve around food. The team eats dinner as a group every night, and late-night snacks and pregame meals are also team staples.
Because there is so much down time during NCAA play, roommate assignment is key. The squad rotates roommates on the road during the regular season, but roommates stay the same during the postseason as long as the team is winning. Rooming with Tyler Hansbrough, for example, can mean being on constant alert for his outbursts when watching non-UNC games (about officiating or another player or team, for example), while rooming with Marcus Ginyard means struggling to gain control of the remote to turn the television off Ginyard's preferred music channels and onto basketball.
As UNC battles the top 6 or 7 teams for the 4 number 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, I couldn't help but wonder what the difference is between 1 and 2. Is there any significant difference in UNC's success in the tournament between when they were a 1 seed vs a 2 seed?
Scott Goldston
Morgantown, WV
We obviously received this question before the brackets were announced. But it's still relevant. Yes, there's a significant difference between Carolina's record as a 1 seed and the results as a 2 seed. As a top seed, the Tar Heels are 37-8 (.822) all-time. As a second seed, the Tar Heels are 19-7 (.731) all-time. Six Final Four trips and three national championships have come as a top seed, but just two Final Fours and zero championships have come as a second seed.
Of Roy Williams's five Final Four trips as a head coach, two came as a top seed (2002 and 2005), two came as a second seed (1993 and 2003), and one came as a third seed (1991).
So...which was the most significant dunk for the Heels this season--Hansbrough's over UNC-Asheville's Kenny George or Danny Green's over Paulus in Cameron?
Amy Mathur
Huntingdon, PA
Interesting question. The George dunk perfectly summed up Hansbrough, because it was so obvious that he took George as a challenge and purposely tried to dunk on him. It might not be the quintessential play of Hansbrough's career to date (I'd argue for his steal and loose ball recovery in this year's home game against Clemson), but it's in the top three or four.
Green's dunk might have been more cathartic for fans than for players. Because of who it came against, the play quickly became a frequently emailed trash talk staple among co-workers and divided family members. But as Green noted this weekend in Charlotte, "It was just two points." As enjoyable as his dunk was, other plays from that game were more critical to the outcome.
When was the last time the Heels won the ACC Basketball Tournament without playing State, Wake or Duke? Also, this is the first year in recent memory, I believe, that the Heels did not suffer a loss by a sizeable margin in the regular season. When was the last time that occurred? (You can define sizeable margin but I would say a game where they lost by 12 or more points).
Bob Biddle
Greensboro
Bob, we hereby bestow honorary Tuesday Talking Point guru-status upon you. As you know by now, Sunday marked Carolina's record 17th ACC Tournament championship. But it was the first time ever that the Tar Heels won the crown without defeating one of the in-state schools. Great question.
As for your second question, I'd probably define a "sizable margin" as double digits. Last year's team also avoided a double-digit loss--until the NCAA Tournament, when the overtime defeat to Georgetown came by a 96-84 tally. The last team to go through an entire season without a double-digit loss was the 1987 squad, which lost four games by a combined 12 points.
Brownlow's Down Low
Tyler and his classmates are now 3-0 in Cameron. Has any Carolina class, since Coach K got to Duke, gone undefeated for four years at Cameron?
Roy Keefer
Gettysburg, Pennsylvania
Lauren writes:
Coach K arrived at Duke in 1980-81. So the only four-year senior class to go undefeated at Cameron was Buzz Peterson, who went 7-2 against Duke and 4-0 at Cameron from 1981-82 until 1984-85. Michael Jordan, had he stayed an extra year, would have also been a part of that class. He was 6-1 against Duke and 3-0 at Cameron.From 1986 until 1993, no senior class had a losing record at Cameron. The 1993 senior class of Scott Cherry, George Lynch, Henrik Rodl and Matt Wenstrom (and again, I'm sure they'll take it in exchange for what they got) were just 1-3 at Cameron. The 1994 seniors (Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese and Kevin Salvadori) were also just 1-3 at Cameron.
Rasheed Wallace famously (and allegedly) said that, "As long as Me, Touche (Jeff McInnis) and Jerry (Stackhouse) are here, we ain't ever losing here." Well, that famous prophecy was true. Jeff McInnis was 3-0 at Cameron and 6-0 against Duke (he was at Carolina from1993-94 until 1995-96). Stackhouse and Wallace were 4-0 against Duke and 2-0 at Cameron. The seniors from 1995 until 1998 all had 2-2 or 3-1 record at Cameron. Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison left Carolina in 1998 with a 1-2 record at Duke; their former classmate Ademola Okulaja graduated in 1999 with a 1-3 record.
After the 2000 seniors went 0-4, the 2001, 2002 and 2003 seniors were all 1-3 at Cameron. Obviously, the 2005 seniors had plenty to leave Carolina happy about. However, Jackie Manuel, Jawad Williams and Melvin Scott were one of only two senior classes to have never won a game at Cameron. The other was the 2000 senior class of Ed Cota and Terrence Newby. David Noel and Byron Sanders managed to get a win at Cameron their senior year in 2006. Quentin Thomas is 3-1 at Cameron; the juniors are 3-0 (and have a chance to make it 4-0 next season) and the sophomores are 2-0.
This year's senior class (Quentin Thomas) is the first senior class since 1999 to have at least a winning record against Duke overall (5-3) since 1998. Carolina had a streak of four straight senior classes to win at least six games against Duke and lose no more than two games. Donald Williams in 1995 was 6-3 against Duke. Dante Calabria in 1996 was 7-1. Serge Zwikker in 1997 was also 7-1. Shammond Williams left with a 7-2 record in 1998. The worst record against Duke was the 2002 senior class of Jason Capel, Kris Lang and Orlando Melendez which went just 1-10 against Duke.
Reyshawn Terry left Carolina with a 4-4 record against Duke. He was the first senior to have a .500 record against Duke since 1999, when Ademola Okulaja graduated with a 5-5 record in 1999. Quentin Thomas is 5-3. Next year's seniors, barring a three-game sweep by Duke, will continue that streak as they are already 4-2 against Duke. The sophomores are also in pretty good shape with a 3-1 record against Duke.
The strange thing is that since 1984 (the first class to have played against Coach K four times), Carolina's seniors had a winning record against Duke in 10 of the first 16 seasons and a .500 record or better in all but two seasons. Then from 2000 until 2007, no senior class won more than three games against Duke. Things look to be turning around for the seniors, or at least evening out. It is not likely that any Carolina senior class will ever be 1-10 against Duke again.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of four books on Carolina basketball.
