University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
January 6, 2009 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
Jan. 6, 2009
By Adam Lucas
All of this week's questions were picked before the weekend, which means we missed all of the, "Why can't the Tar Heels defend?" and "Does Carolina ever practice free throws?" questions that were generated by Sunday night's loss to Boston College. A couple quick thoughts:
It's true that defense was a problem against Boston College. The Eagles scored 0.94 points per possession, the second-highest figure of the season next to Notre Dame (which was inflated due to some crazy three-pointers). Lost in all the talk about Carolina's defense, though, is the fact that the offense was as poor as it has been all season. The Tar Heels managed just 0.75 points per possession, easily a season low for a team that has averaged 1.01 for the season--that's a substantial drop. Roy Williams singled out a long stretch when the Tar Heels couldn't chop into a 56-54 deficit, and a similar situation happened between the 8- and 4-minute marks of the second half, when Carolina had turnovers or poor shot selection on several key possessions.
Much of the credit for the offensive struggles goes to Boston College. In the postgame, Al Skinner downplayed his team's ability to keep Carolina from running--"I'm not sure if we kept them out of transition," he said--but it clearly had an impact. Slowed into a walking game rather than a running game, UNC point guards Ty Lawson and Larry Drew II combined for the very uncharacteristic numbers of five assists and seven turnovers. More than any opponent this season, the Eagles seemed to consistently have two or three defenders back to stop Lawson's dashes to the hoop. They also took excellent care of the basketball (they had just seven turnovers with four minutes left in the game), which limited transition chances for easy baskets. Put it all together, and it's the formula for an upset.
Does the upset change anything? Sure, it makes a lot of Tar Heel fans more nervous. But right now, on January 6, Carolina is exactly where you want them to be: one of the three or four teams with the best chance to win a national title. In the one-and-done college game, that's all you can hope for in January. The next two months are about improving the areas that looked weak on Sunday. If that happens, you'll remember the BC game in much the same way you remember the Georgia Tech game from 2005 or the Wake Forest game from 1993.
Considering that Carolina could put together two full starting fives full of McDonald's All-Americans from this year's team alone, it got me thinking. What relationship does the number of McDonald's All-American players on Carolina's teams in the past have with that particular team's overall success? Does it make any difference? Some players who were McDonald's All-Americans have underachieved, and some walk-ons have led their teams to unheralded success. How did the past Tar Heel teams fare? And if they didn't do well, should we stop serving them double-quarter pounders?
Jordan Shamp
Chapel Hill
Actually, the Tar Heels couldn't put together two starting fives, but they could play a compelling game of 4-on-4. This year's McDonald's All-Americans include Tyler Hansbrough, Bobby Frasor, Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Larry Drew II, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. That's the most in the Williams era and ties them with the 1984 team, the 1987 team, and the 1994 team as Tar Heel squads with an octet of high school honorees. We've mentioned this in previous discussions about depth, but finding yourself in the company of those teams brings up an interesting question about how hard it can be to manage depth. The number of prep All-Americans on the roster isn't the only thing the '84, '87 and '94 teams have in common--all three of those teams also suffered postseason heartbreak.
Since the McDonald's All-American Game began in 1977, 53 players who eventually played for Carolina earned McDonald's distinction. The 1982 national champions had six McDonald's players (Braddock, Doherty, Jordan, Perkins, Peterson, Worthy), the 1993 national champions also had a half-dozen (Lynch, Montross, Phelps, Reese, Wenstrom, Williams) and the 2005 national champions had five (Felton, May, McCants, J. Williams, M. Williams). Of Carolina's nine Final Four teams since 1980, the only squad with less than five McDonald's All-Americans was--somewhat surprisingly--the 1998 team, which fans often think of as a star-studded group. Of that bunch, "only" Anatwn Jamison, Vince Carter, Ed Cota and Brendan Haywood were McDonald's selections.
Recruiting isn't an exact science, of course, but it's fair to say that McDonald's recognition combined with a Tar Heel pedigree places a player on the right path to pro success. Of Carolina's McDonald's picks who are eligible for the pros, all but 11 eventually spent at least some time in the NBA, and of those 11, two had their careers dramatically changed by injury (Curtis Hunter and Kevin Madden) and one is playing in the NFL (Ronald Curry).
I would like to know whether Coach Holladay's son is still in the military. Is he deployed? Is he home? What is his status? My thanks and appreciation to him and his willing service for our country.
Joe Shadowens
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Mathew Holladay is back from Iraq and can frequently be spotted in the stands at Tar Heel home games.
I'm sick of the debate on what kind of pro Tyler Hansbrough will make. With all of the talk on this topic maybe some historical data can give some indication of what to expect from, in my opinion, the greatest college hoopster of all time when he makes the jump. How have past multi-year first team All American players preformed at the next level? (Perhaps in terms of length of career and all star appearances)
John W. Michael
King of Prussia, PA
I haven't even been having the debate John mentions and I'm already sick of it. It reminds me a little bit of the way ESPN covered the College World Series this summer. Rather than focusing on the teams actually playing in the game, the network spent more time trying to project how certain individuals would play at the pro level. Maybe they thought that's what viewers wanted, but count me as one viewer who doesn't care.
It's the same with Hansbrough. He may be a great pro. He may not be a great pro. Honestly, I'm one of the least qualified people to project him at that level. But why would I want to waste any time speculating when I could enjoy his next 3+ months of college competition? While some of the talking heads are trying to pencil him into an NBA lineup they're missing one of the greatest college players of this era.
John thinned the ranks considerably with the criteria for his question: multi-year first team All-Americans are very rare. In the last 30 years, the Tar Heels have had five such players other than Hansbrough: Michael Jordan, Antawn Jamison, Sam Perkins, Mike O'Koren and James Worthy. Here are the credentials for those five players:
To break it down further, the five most recent Tar Heel multi-All-Americans have averaged over 12 seasons in the pros apiece. In an era when less than 10 percent of the league has a career that lasts more than 10 seasons, that's very impressive.
What does that mean for Hansbrough? It means that unless he's very unusual, he's going to have a long, productive career in the NBA. Does that mean anyone will stop talking about it anytime soon? Hopefully so.
Brownlow's Down Low
All college players dream of going to the final four but at Carolina you must have a pretty good chance of being on at least one final four team during your career. Since the `57 team how many letterman have been on final four teams. And what percentage of letterman have been members of final four teams?
Richard Woodcock
Lauren writes:
Since (and including) 1957, Carolina has had 291 letterwinners and 170 of those have gone to at least one Final Four. That comes out to 58.4 percent. If Carolina makes a Final Four this season, that number will increase to 174 out of 295 increases it slightly to 58.9 percent. Of those 170, 61 have been to multiple Final Fours, or 21 percent of all letterwinners. That list includes most recently Quentin Thomas, but the last repeat players before then were Brian Bersticker, Michael Brooker, Brendan Haywood and Max Owens. If Carolina gets there again this season, that number will jump up to 74 out of 295, 25 percent.There have also been quite a few three-time players as well, at least compared to what other schools might have. Five players made it to three straight Final Fours between 1967 and 1969 - Joe Brown, Bill Bunting, Rusty Clark, Dick Grubar and Gerald Tuttle. Pat Sullivan made it to the Final Four in 1991, 1993 and 1995, playing at Carolina for what seemed like a decade. Shammond Williams made it to Final Fours in 1995, 1997 and 1998. Terrence Newby and Ed Cota made it to the Final Four in 1997, 1998 and 2000. It's no coincidence that two of the most beloved Tar Heels - and two that some think belong in the rafters - are two of Carolina's three-time attendees, Ed Cota and Shammond Williams.
Of this current class, Will Graves has a chance to get there three times in four seasons; all the rest of the freshmen have a chance to start their own streaks.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of four books on Carolina basketball.
