Carmichael Comments: NCAA Opponent Preview

Carmichael Comments: NCAA Opponent Preview
Vol. 7, No. 15
By: Matt Krause (@MattKrausePxP)

It's time to dance, Carolina fans.

And not just that, to dance at home. The Tar Heels will host NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament games for the first time since 2015, earning a No. 3 seed in the Birmingham 2 Region. Carolina's best NCAA Tournament seed since 2013 is a fitting reward for a regular season of 25 wins, a top-20 NET ranking, and seven NET quad 1 wins. Not only will Carolina have the chance to play at home, but based on placement in the Birmingham 2 region, the Tar Heels will not have to leave the Eastern or Central time zones, and won't have to go west of Alabama the entire NCAA Tournament.

Let's learn a bit more about the four teams joining Carolina in Chapel Hill, beginning with the guaranteed opponent: the Oregon State Beavers.

(14) Oregon State Beavers
2024-25: 19-15, 12-8 West Coast Conference (Won WCC Title Game, 59-46, over Portland)
Series Record: Oregon State leads, 2-1
Last Meeting: Oregon State wins, 70-55, at Carmichael Arena on Dec. 16, 2014
Coach Banghart Record: First Meeting

Oregon State is one of the most unique programs in this season's NCAA Tournament. The Beavers, one of two teams left behind in the dissolution of the Pac-12, were a top 16 host just a season ago, and advanced to the program's third Elite Eight in the past eight seasons before falling to South Carolina. But with the Pac-12 falling apart, Oregon State began a two-year run in the West Coast Conference, playing against a much softer mid-major-type schedule than in years past. Three starters with eligibility left – C Raegan Beers, G Talia van Oelhoffen, and G Donovyn Hunter, plus sixth player F Timea Gardiner – all hit the portal to maintain their college career at the power conference level, and all four are playing on teams hosting as top three seeds in 2025. Who didn't leave? Head Coach Scott Rueck, who led Oregon State to the 2016 Final Four, and is a four-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year. The Oregon State alum had a rocky start this season with a depleted roster, starting 0-4 against power conference foes before a neutral court win over Carolina's ACC companion Boston College. After another four-game slide in WCC play in late January, OSU sat 5-5 in the league. But with wins in seven of their final 10 league games and an upset of top-seeded Gonzaga in the WCC Semifinals in Las Vegas, Oregon State is surging into a much different March Madness than a year ago. The two starters who returned, G AJ Marotte (11.4 PPG/3.3 RPG) and F Kelsey Rees (12.8 PPG/7.6 RPG), were both All-WCC First Team selections. As a team, the Beavers hang their hats on rebounding, ranking in the top 35 nationally at a +6.4 margin per game, and 24th nationally with 28.3 defensive rebounds per game.

Should the Tar Heels advance to the NCAA Second Round, they will play the winner of Saturday's game between West Virginia and the winner of a Thursday First Four game between Columbia and Washington. Both of those neutral-site games will be held at Carmichael Arena.

(6) West Virginia Mountaineers
2024-25: 24-7, 13-5 Big XII (Lost in Big XII Semifinals, 71-65, to TCU)
Series Record: UNC leads, 1-0
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 95-56, in Harrisonburg, Va. on Nov. 17, 1979
Coach Banghart Record: West Virginia leads, 1-0
Last Meeting: West Virginia wins, 74-65, in Columbus, Ohio on Mar. 18, 2016 (NCAA First Round)

Despite the relative geographic proximity, Carolina and West Virginia have only met in women's basketball once, during the Jimmy Carter administration in 1979. But a potential NCAA Second Round clash would continue a trend of postseason matchups between the two schools, having seen one another on the gridiron in the 2023 Duke's Mayo Bowl and on the diamond in a memorable 2024 Chapel Hill Super Regional. There would familiarity in the coaching matchup, too. Mark Kellogg is in his second season as West Virginia's head coach after a very successful run at Stephen F. Austin, including a 2022 NCAA Tournament berth where his Lumberjacks fell to Carolina in Tucson, Ariz. in the First Round – Coach Banghart's first NCAA Tournament win at the helm of the Tar Heels. In Kellogg's first run with the Mountaineers, WVU pushed Caitlin Clark and Iowa to the brink last season – the game was tied with 2:55 left – before bowing out in the NCAA Second Round. This year, WVU's lone non-league loss came to Texas at the Gulf Coast Showcase, and the Mountaineers were in hosting position until two losses to TCU in a three-week span at the end of the regular season and in the Big 12 Semifinals. WVU was a perfect 16-0 at home in Morgantown, but just 5-5 in true road settings and 8-7 overall away from home. A 2-5 mark in Quad 1 with no wins over NCAA hosts meant a No. 6 seed and a road assignment for WVU this weekend. G Ja'Niya "JJ" Quinerly is the star of the team at 20.6 PPG, which ranks third in the Big 12 and 16th nationally. Her 89 steals, top 15 nationally, helped her earn Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors to go with a First Team All-Big 12 selection. Also, keep an eye on G Kyah Watson, who is an even more prolific stealer of the basketball than Quinerly at No. 1 in the Big 12 and No. 8 nationally with 98 steals.

(11) Columbia Lions
2024-25: 23-6, 13-1 Ivy League (Lost in Ivy Title Game, 74-71, to Harvard)
Series Record: First Meeting
Last Meeting: N/A
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads, 22-2
Last Meeting: Princeton wins, 65-59, in Princeton, N.J. on Feb. 23, 2019

A team Carolina could have played in the Battle 4 Atlantis, Columbia makes its second straight NCAA Tournament appearance out of the Ivy League. The connections in this potential coaching matchup are strong: Columbia Head Coach Megan Griffith is a former Courtney Banghart assistant at Princeton from 2012-16. Last season, Griffith became only the second Ivy League head coach, joining Banghart, to earn an at-large from the Ivy. Despite losing G Abbey Hsu and her 20.4 PPG to the WNBA Draft last offseason, Columbia is making a return trip to the Dance on the strength of G Kitty Henderson, whose 13.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG and 2.5 steals per game earned her a First Team All-Ivy nod and Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year. Joining Henderson on the All-Ivy First Team was G Riley Weiss, who ranked second in the Ivy at 17.8 PPG a season after scoring only 7.1. As a team, Columbia's rebounding margin (+8.8 per game, 10th nationally), offensive rebounding prowess (16.4 per game, 6th nationally), and ability to share the ball (17.0 APG, 25th nationally) jump off the page. Columbia may not own a win over a power conference team this year, but they did beat mid-major NCAA qualifiers Harvard, Princeton, Ball State, and Florida Gulf Coast. They'll try for that first power conference win in the First Four against Washington.

(11) Washington Huskies
2024-25: 19-13, 9-9 Big Ten (Lost in Big Ten Second Round, 66-58, to Michigan)
Series Record: UNC leads, 2-1
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 58-37, in Bimini, Bahamas on Nov. 27, 2021
Coach Banghart Record: Coach Banghart leads, 1-0

Washington's debut season in the Big Ten has been a fourth-year breakthrough for Head Coach Tina Langley, who will take Washington to their first March Madness since 2017. Langley was immensely successful at Rice, reaching the 2019 NCAA Tournament and coaching the favorite to reach the Tournament from Conference USA in 2020 before COVID. She also won the 2017 WBI and 2021 WNIT with the Owls prior to moving west to Seattle. Washington's NET climbed steadily to No. 43 by Selection Sunday, and despite a 3-9 mark in Quad 1, they were selected. The three quad 1 wins were all road wins in Big Ten play – at Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska – and a loss in the Big Ten Second Round snapped a five-game win streak that helped Washington pass the "eye test" late in the season. G Elle Ladine leads the team at 17.1 PPG, and shoots over 39% from three-point range. Her 75 made threes rank second in the Big Ten, and helped her earn a spot on the All-Big Ten Second Team. Two players garnered honorable mention laurels from the Big Ten: G Sayvia Sellers (15.2 PPG; 67 three-pointers made – 4th Big Ten) and F Dalayah Daniels (12.7 PPG; team-best 7.1 RPG). Washington is an efficient offensive team, shooting nearly 48% to rank second in the Big Ten and in the top 10 nationally, while the duo of Ladine and Sellers enables the Huskies to lead their conference and rank 11th nationally at a 37.3% three-point percentage as a team. There's a lot of travel involved in being a Big Ten team in Seattle, but Washington's ability to shoot the three gives a whole new meaning to "letting it fly."

Broadcast Information

Coverage of all of Carolina's NCAA Tournament games can be found on the Tar Heel Sports Network from Learfield. With Saturday's game against Oregon State tipping at 4:30 p.m., we'll take the air at 4:00 p.m. for the Reeds Jewelers Pregame Show. Catch the call worldwide for free on all of our normal outlets: the Varsity Network app from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app, as well as on WCHL 97.9 FM/1360 AM.

With a win, Carolina would play on Monday against West Virginia, Columbia, or Washington. A potential Sweet 16 game would take place Friday, Mar. 28 in Birmingham, while the Elite Eight tips on Sunday, Mar. 30 in Birmingham, Ala. The Final Four is scheduled for Friday, Apr. 4 and Sunday, Apr. 6 in Tampa, Fla. While all times beyond Saturday's game remain TBD, we will take the air 30 minutes prior to tip for each game. You can always listen for free on the Varsity Network app from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app, as well as on WCHL 97.9 FM/1360 AM.

We'll also have an NCAA Tournament preview edition of Holding Court, available on Wednesday morning on the Tar Heel Voices Podcast Channel. Tune in for interviews and analysis to get you ready for Carolina's postseason run!

That's all for now. Go Heels!
-Matt